Fixed Matches in World Football Across Different Competitions
In our previous post, we covered a topic that we had planned to discuss for some time. We looked at whether fixed matches really exist in modern football and whether they also existed in the past. Instead of looking at the subject from only one perspective, we went through different periods. We also used specific examples to present a broader picture.
The first part focused on the earliest known case of a fixed football match. After that, we moved to one of the early cases in which match fixing was connected to an attempt to make money through betting. These examples helped us show that match fixing has appeared for different reasons throughout football history.
After covering the historical side of the subject, we moved to modern football and shared our team’s personal opinion. We discussed matches from lower leagues, then second divisions, and finally the highest level of domestic football competitions.
Our intention was not to claim that any particular league is connected with fixed matches. Instead, we wanted to present our own view based on years of following football and betting.
Once we completed the post, we noticed that several important categories of matches were still missing from the discussion. We had not shared our opinion about club friendly matches, the European Championship or the World Cup.
Rather than making the previous post even longer, we decided to cover these matches separately. This gives us enough space to look at each category individually and clearly present how our team views it.
We will share our personal opinion on Fixed Matches in World Football, focusing on club friendlies, the European Championship and the World Cup. These are three different types of football matches, and we do not believe they should automatically be placed in the same group.
World Club Friendly Matches and Fixed Matches
The first category we will look at is World Club Friendly matches. These friendly matches are usually played during the summer break and shortly before the start of the new season in domestic football leagues.
Clubs from different levels can take part in these matches. We can see teams from the third or second division, as well as clubs from the strongest national leagues. Sometimes two well-known clubs meet, while in other cases a big club plays against a significantly weaker or less-known opponent.
The lineups are one of the reasons why we pay close attention to these matches. A friendly match often serves as preparation rather than a fight for points. Because of this, coaches can give minutes to reserve players, young players or footballers fighting for a place in the first team. They can also make a large number of substitutions during the match.
Of course, this does not mean that every club always plays with a second team. Well-known players also get minutes during the preparation period. Still, the lineup and approach can differ significantly from what we see when the same club plays an important league or European match.
The Problem for People Who Want to Bet
From a betting perspective, World Club Friendly matches have another problem for us. Market availability is not always the same as it is for regular league matches.
Some smaller friendly matches are not available at all with certain bookmakers. When more famous clubs are playing, there is a greater chance that the match will be offered, but sometimes the choice of markets remains limited.
Most often, basic markets such as 1X2 or Over Goals are available. This is one of the reasons why we do not treat these matches in the same way as regular matches from domestic leagues.
Our Personal Opinion on Fixed Matches in Club Friendly Matches
This brings us to the main question of this section: what do we think about fixed matches in World Club Friendly matches?
When we discuss Fixed Matches in World Football, our team has significantly more distrust toward Club Friendly matches. Based on years of following results, our personal impression is that these matches produce far more unusual outcomes than we would expect based only on the names and quality of the clubs.
Our personal impression is that suspicious or unusual results appear more often in this category than in the competitions we discussed earlier. Still, this is only our own observation from following these matches over the years. We do not have evidence that would allow us to estimate how many Club Friendly matches could actually involve manipulation.
Why, then, do we have so much distrust?
The first reason is the nature of the match itself. There are no points, no relegation, and the final result usually has no direct impact on the club’s position in its domestic league. Coaches can primarily test formations, new players and different lineups.
The second reason is that the match can still be available for betting. In our opinion, this combination of low sporting importance and the possibility of betting is the reason why we approach this category with additional caution.
We also notice unusual Halftime Fulltime Fixed Matches Results. On a day with a large number of Club Friendly matches, several games can end with a turnaround, such as 1/2 or 2/1. It is also not unusual for a well-known club to lose against a far less-known opponent.
But here we must again make an important distinction. Neither a 1/2 or 2/1 turnaround nor the defeat of a big club is evidence that a match was fixed. In friendly matches, such a result can come from a large number of substitutions, an experimental lineup, different levels of physical preparation or simply from what happens on the pitch.
For that reason, we do not present our suspicions as evidence that a specific match was fixed.
Why We Do Not Use Them in Our Analyses
For these reasons, we do not use World Club Friendly matches in our private analyses.
As we have stated in our FAQ and Terms and Conditions, we want our clients’ bookmakers to offer the selected matches and markets when we prepare our analyses.
Therefore, if you look at our HT/FT Archive or Daily Archive pages, you will not notice that we regularly use World Club Friendly matches. We prefer official competitions where we have clearer information about the lineup, form, importance of the match and available markets.
Suspicion and Proven Manipulation Are Not the Same Thing
Still, our discussion of Fixed Matches in World Football is not based only on our personal opinion about friendly matches. Throughout history, there have been documented cases in which international matches were the subject of investigations into manipulation related to betting.
Here it is very important not to mix three different things: our personal suspicion, an official investigation and proven manipulation.
An unusual result, a large number of goals or an unexpected HT/FT outcome are not enough on their own for us to call a match fixed. Such a claim requires specific evidence or official findings.
One well-known example comes from investigations connected to Wilson Raj Perumal. FIFA investigated various international matches over the years that he attempted to manipulate for betting-related purposes. As a result of wider investigations, FIFA later sanctioned several individuals for their involvement in match manipulation.
We mention this example only to show that the manipulation of friendly matches does not exist solely as an internet theory or as our personal suspicion. There are real cases that have been investigated and sanctioned by football institutions.
Still, we will not go deeper into historical cases here. That deserves a separate post.
In one of our next posts, we will focus specifically on interesting and documented cases of match fixing in world football. We will go from more recent to older cases and look at exactly what happened, who investigated the case and what was actually proven.
World Cup, European Championship and Fixed Matches
When discussing Fixed Matches in World Football, our opinion on the World Cup and European Championship differs from our view on Club Friendly matches.
In our previous post, we said that we believe the possibility of match fixing in the strongest domestic leagues is significantly lower than at some lower levels of football. This does not mean that manipulation can never happen. It means that, in our opinion, such cases are much less common.
When we talk about the World Cup and European Championship, we go one step further. Our current opinion is that the possibility of a match at such a tournament being fixed for the purpose of making money through betting is extremely small.
The reasons why we think this way are logical. National teams play at these tournaments in front of a huge global audience. The matches have major sporting importance, and the result can decide qualification for the next stage, elimination or the winner of one of the most important trophies in football.
In addition, today’s major tournaments are monitored by systems created to protect the integrity of the competition.
For all these reasons, we do not place the World Cup and European Championship in the same category as Club Friendly matches.
Still, while researching football history, we found several cases that made us avoid being absolute with this statement.
West Germany – Austria at the 1982 World Cup
One of the most famous examples is the match between West Germany and Austria at the 1982 World Cup in Spain.
Before the match started, both national teams already knew what result they needed. West Germany won 1–0, and that result allowed both Germany and Austria to advance, while Algeria were eliminated.
After the German goal, the match became known for the lack of competitive risk from both sides. The entire case later became remembered as the “Disgrace of Gijón.”
But this is where we have to be careful with the word fixed.
We cannot simply say that West Germany – Austria was a proven fixed match for the purpose of making money through betting. What we can say is that the result suited both national teams. The way the match developed also caused enormous controversy.
Situations like this show an important difference. Classic match fixing connected to betting is one thing. A situation where two teams have no sporting reason to risk a result that suits them is another.
Argentina – Peru and the 6–0 Result in 1978
Another match that has remained part of discussions about the World Cup is Argentina – Peru from 1978.
Argentina needed a convincing victory to continue their fight for the title. The match ended 6–0 for Argentina, while the size of the result and the circumstances surrounding the game caused suspicions that continued to appear years later.
But again, we have to make the same distinction. Historical suspicion or controversy is not the same as officially proven match fixing.
Therefore, we do not use this match as evidence that World Cup matches are fixed. We use it as an example of why certain matches remain the subject of discussion even decades later.
Why Today’s World Cup and EURO Are Different
Football today does not operate in the same way as it did in 1978 or 1982. The way matches, betting markets and suspicious activities are monitored is significantly more developed.
UEFA, for example, uses systems to monitor betting markets and can open an investigation when suspicious movements are detected.
This does not mean that the system can guarantee in advance that manipulation will never happen. Still, it means that today’s major tournaments have additional control mechanisms that did not exist in the same form several decades ago.
A good example is EURO 2024. After the tournament, UEFA announced that no suspicious betting activity had been found and that no other match fixing concerns had been raised during the tournament.
Our Opinion on Fixed Matches at Major Tournaments
After everything we have looked at, our personal opinion remains that the chance of a classic fixed match at the World Cup or European Championship today is very small. But we do not want to say that it is impossible.
History shows us that there have been matches at the highest level of football that caused serious suspicion and controversy.
At the same time, this does not give us the right to call every unusual result or surprise at the World Cup or EURO a fixed match.
This is the most important distinction in our analysis of Fixed Matches in World Football: proven match fixing, historical suspicion and a result that suits two teams are not the same thing.
Therefore, when we talk about the World Cup and European Championship, our position is cautious. We believe that today’s major tournaments are among the competitions where the possibility of manipulation is the lowest, but history gives us enough reason never to claim that such a thing is absolutely impossible.
Our Opinion on Fixed Matches in Different Football Competitions
With this post, we continued our analysis of Fixed Matches in World Football and shared our personal opinion on several other categories of matches that we intentionally left for a separate topic.
What we can conclude is that, for us, there is no single answer when it comes to fixed matches in different football competitions. We approach Club Friendly matches with much greater caution. In contrast, we have a completely different opinion about the World Cup and European Championship. At the biggest international tournaments, we believe that classic match fixing is extremely unlikely today. This refers specifically to match fixing for the purpose of making money through betting.
Still, the research we did for this and the previous post showed us something else that is important. Football history includes proven cases of manipulation, but some matches remain memorable only because of suspicions, controversies or results that suited both sides. We should not confuse these things.
That is exactly why we do not want to automatically call an unusual result, a major comeback or an unexpected defeat of a favourite a fixed match. Our personal opinion may lead us to be suspicious of a certain category of matches, but suspicion is not evidence that a specific match was fixed.
With our previous post and this one, we complete our analysis of how we view the existence of fixed matches in different parts of football. But this does not mean that we are finished with the entire topic.
During our research, we found a large number of interesting cases from football history that deserve separate attention. Therefore, in one of our next posts, we will focus specifically on these cases. We will look at specific cases of match fixing, from more recent to older ones. We will clearly distinguish between cases that authorities officially proved and those that remained only suspicions or football controversies.
